Introduction

West Asia has long been a center for conflicts, ever since the decline of the Ottoman Empire in the mid-20th century. The region has been a focal point of geopolitical friction. Decades of civil war has left the region in deep-rooted instability, with religious orthodoxy, sectarianism, and foreign intervention being the determining factors for the volatility of this region. The socio-political dynamics of the region have always been complicated but the escalations after the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war have further left the region politically and economically-upended. But what happened in Syria in December of 2024 can easily be called one of the most defining episodes in West Asia’s modern history. Syria, home to one of the oldest civilizations in the world, is located in the heart of the Middle East on the East coast of the Mediterranean Sea in Southwestern Asia. For a millennia, “Syria” meant the bigger Greater Syria, or Bilad-el-Sham (“The Land of Sham”), the strip of fertile land lying between the eastern Mediterranean coast and the desert of Northern Arabia, which comprises of what we now know as Lebanon, Jordan, Israel, Palestine, and parts of Turkey and Iraq and shares its borders with Syria. Syria today stands as the most fluid and dynamic diplomatic venue in West Asia and is still the most strategically and geographically contested land in the region, as it has been for centuries.

A Look at Syria’s Tumultuous History

The nation, much like the rest of the Middle East, was shaped by European imperialism, as The Sykes-Picot Agreement of 1916 divided the former Ottoman territories between Britain and France, establishing the groundwork for complicated geo-political borders, sectarian tensions, and external interventions, which continued for decades. Even after the decolonization of the region from European forces in 1946, Syria remained caught up in Cold War rivalries and regional power struggles. The early years of an independent Syria were marked by extreme political instability, frequent coups, and shifting military allegiances, with the 1948 Arab-Israeli War, including the alignment with the Soviet Union in 1956, the region continued to face strains of the Cold War as well as internal power struggles. After its brief and unsuccessful union with Egypt as the United Arab Republic (1958-1961), the Ba’ath Party rose to power in 1963. Finally, through a military coup in  1970, Syria came under the authoritarian rule of President Hafez al-Assad, who proposed a corrective revolution, with the goal of attaining national security, domestic stability, and regaining the territory Israel had taken from Syria in 1967(Golan Heights). As part of an Alawite minority, Hafez al-Assad capitalized on sectarian divisions to strengthen his grip on power, elevating the Alawite community as the foundation of his regime. His rule was defined by a divide-and-rule strategy, strategically placing Alawites in key military and government roles, securing a loyal support base that would ensure his family’s dominance in Syria for decades. Hafez al-Assad's rule was marked by brutal repression, most infamously in 1982 when the Syrian military crushed an armed uprising by the Muslim Brotherhood in the city of Hama. Estimates of the death count range from 10,000 to 40,000, making it one of the most violent crackdowns in modern Middle Eastern history. His son, Bashar al-Assad, took over as president after his death in 2000. Although he took some tentative steps toward political reform early on, Bashar al-Assad would go on to follow in his father’s footsteps, relying on Syria’s powerful militia and security services to suppress political dissent. The pattern of repression as seen in his predecessors continued under Bashar, which culminated into the 2011 uprising that marked Syria's entry into the wave of Arab Spring protests. Though a long history of resistance and opposition to the Baathist regime existed in Syria before the uprising that began in 2011, what followed for over a decade has left the country deeply fractured, with over half a million dead, entire cities reduced to rubble, and millions displaced across the globe; this war has seen some of the most devastating humanitarian crises of the 21st century. 

The Assad family-led Syrian authoritarianism from 1971 to 2024 came to a whimpering end in late 2024 under the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) rebels, sending shock waves throughout the world, as many contenders, from the United States to Russia, Israel, and Turkey are deeply embedded in this story. 

Now, as the Assad regime collapses, Syria faces an uphill battle in constructing a new legal and political order. The country’s transition is not just a question of governance but also of legitimacy. Among the many challenges, the Kurdish question remains among the most contentious. 

The Kurdish Dilemma: Autonomy vs. National Integration

Syria is a profoundly diverse country with complex ethnic, religious, and cultural integration. Arabs form the majority, including some 70 % Sunni Muslim population who live all over the country, Shia Muslims make up around 3% of Syria's population, a more significant minority in Syria are Alawites though, including deposed leader Bashar Assad, who make up around 10% of the population and many of this minority esoteric sect of Islam live in Syria's western coastal region, particularly in the cities of Latakia and Tartus. Apart from different Muslim groups, Syria is also home to several religious minorities such as Christians, and many ethnic minorities in Syria, including Druze, Palestinian, Iraqi, Armenian, Greek, Assyrian, Circassian, Mandean, and Turkoman groups, most of them live in and around Damascus.

But the most strategically important sect and ethnic group in all of Syria are the Kurds. The Kurdish-ruled Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, also known as Rojava, is home to Syria's largest minority of about 2.5 million Kurdish people. For over a decade, US-backed and  Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have controlled this large portion of northern Syria, and with the fall of Damascus, the spotlight has shifted to this region, bordering Iran, Türkiye, and Iraq. The Kurdish people, numbering over 50 million, represent one of the largest ethnic groups without a state. Kurds, who have for decades been denied the chance of ending a repressive stateless limbo, find the dream of an independent Kurdistan to be elusive. While defining the boundaries of present-day Turkey in the Treaty of Lausanne, France and Great Britain broke their commitment to establish a Kurdish state following the Ottoman Empire's defeat in World War I. The nations in which the Kurds have unwillingly become ethnic minorities have since been subjected to devastating persecution. Kurds who demand autonomy and an independent state have been repressed brutally, especially by Turkey. Türkiye perceives the rise of Kurdish forces and YPG also known as People's Protection Units, a libertarian socialist US-backed Kurdish militant group, an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) a group it considers a terrorist organization, as a direct threat to its border. This has led to Turkish military offensives in Afrin and northern Syria, which have displaced thousands of Kurds.

 Although PKK has recently declared a unilateral ceasefire which could mark the beginning of the end of the PKK and their 40-year-old violent struggle for independence on Turkish territory, the results of this momentous ceasefire are yet to be determined, depending upon the official congressional meeting.

In Syria, the Assad regime viewed Kurdish self-governance as a threat to national unity, the de facto governance under the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) was never recognized. For decades, the Syrian government has repressed the Kurds, denying them citizenship under the census in 1962, leaving nearly 120,000 Kurds stateless (this number grew to over 300,000 before the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011). Under the Ba’athist Arabization policy, Kurdish names, culture, and language were heavily restricted. Kurdish political movements were suppressed, and activists and those demanding autonomy faced severe persecution including imprisonment and exile.

However, with the fall of Damascus, Ahmad al-Sharaa, formerly known as Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, also head of  Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) who led the lightning offensive that toppled Assad in early December and took charge as Syria’s interim president, recently signed an agreement with SDF to integrate its 100,000-strong, predominantly Kurdish force into the new Syrian military. According to this agreement, Syrian Kurds will gain their “constitutional rights" including using and teaching their language, which was banned for decades under the Al-Assad regime. Hundreds of thousands of Kurds who were displaced during Syria's nearly 14-year civil war, will return to their homes. Thousands of Kurds living in Syria who have been deprived of nationality for decades under Assad will be given the right of citizenship. The agreement stipulates that all Syrians, regardless of religious or ethnic background, would be able to participate in the country’s new political process. 

Legally, the Kurdish issue is closely integrated with international human rights law; the protection of minority rights under the Geneva Conventions, and the right to self-determination under the UN Charter. However, Syria remains a unitary state and this agreement is only for Syrian Kurds. Even though this might ease regional tensions, any Kurdish push for autonomy from Kurds living in other nations will likely be met with resistance from Arab nationalist factions and Turkish-backed militias.  Thus The Kurdish question remains a litmus test not only for Syria but to the whole of  West Asia, leaving with a question of whether they will be able to embrace this diversity within their rigid national frameworks.

Transitional Justice and the Future of Syrian Sovereignty

“I'm the only girl of six siblings. And suddenly I lost five brothers between 2012 and 2014,” says Yasmine Al-Mashaan, a Syrian human rights defender and victim. Like Yasmine, millions of Syrians have lost family members, been displaced, or been subjected to systematic repression during the al-Assad regime. Following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's government, one of the most important challenges in front of the new government of Syria is ensuring transitional justice, a procedure meant to rectify past abuses of human rights while maintaining long-term stability and national unity. How well Syria strikes a balance between justice, accountability, and political inclusivity will determine its future as a sovereign state. However, this shift is complicated by the existence of foreign actors, long-standing ethnic and sectarian tensions, and conflicting legal frameworks. 

Syria has historically been a battleground of regional and global power conflicts, with various parties competing for dominance. Now, following the collapse of the Assad regime, a power vacuum was created that was quickly filled by a patchwork of governance structures, most organized by HTS. Meanwhile, in some regions, the remnants of the past regime are still present, from recent violence against Alawites to intensified Israeli operations in Golan Heights, including the competing interests among domestic and foreign stakeholders, which on the one hand is less relevant to the post-Assad political process but it indeed can complicate Syria's strive for sovereignty. The situation is further complicated by the presence of foreign military forces. Israeli airstrikes have continued to target Iranian positions in Syria, and Türkiye continues to maintain military outposts in northern Syria, asserting its role as a security guarantor against Kurdish insurgents. The U.S. also retains a military footprint in northeast Syria, ostensibly to fight for and protect the Kurdish forces.  Another major problem the regime needs to deal with urgently is Syria's economy, which is in ruins as a result of years of conflict, sanctions, and political unrest. Millions of people experience food insecurity, inflation is out of control, and infrastructure is destroyed. Economic recovery efforts have been made more difficult by the international community's targeted sanctions against Assad-era officials and organizations connected to terrorism. Allies like Russia and Iran advocate for urgent sanctions relief to stabilize Syria, while the West insists on human rights-based changes before lifting restrictions. For the new government, striking a balance between economic recovery and legal accountability is still a major problem. In conclusion, it can be said that Syria's governance situation is now highly uncertain with transitional authorities trying to make their way through a severely divided country with very little funding. Although democratic ideals have gained momentum after Assad's downfall, there are still many unknowns on the horizon. The ability to establish institutions capable of effective governance, internal reconciliation initiatives, and ongoing diplomatic engagement are all necessary for the political process in Syria to succeed. Syria runs the risk of sustained instability and additional regional repercussions in the absence of a thorough and coordinated strategy. Whether the nation can become a stable and democratic state or continue to be enmeshed in political and economic unrest will depend on the decisions made in the upcoming months and years. 

Conclusion: A Legal and Political Crossroads

Syria's road to stability is still a complicated web of political unpredictability, intervention from abroad, and entrenched ethnic divisions. Syria may become even more divided as a result of the ideological dogma and past arbitrary practices of rebranded Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), while outside forces could use bribes, weapons, and political manoeuvring to control its destiny. The fight for independence reflects the unmet aspirations of the Arab revolutions and tests the willingness of other forces to let Syrians determine their fate. Although there has been progress in efforts to reconcile with the Kurdish-led movement, true unity is still elusive.
Holding leaders accountable and safeguarding human rights is paramount to prevent history from repeating its grim cycle as witnessed in previous regimes of Syria. With over 90% of Syrians in poverty and thousands of former combatants unmoored, the spectre of renewed violence looms. Sanctions imposed upon the nation continue to stifle economic revival, despite calls for their reconsideration. Ultimately, Syria’s future hinges on the drafting and enforcement of a new constitution that guarantees minority rights and national sovereignty. Today, many Arabs and other citizens across the globe follow Syria’s transformation with hope and admiration. Especially in the case of Syria, the land of lemon trees, a land of resilience where every dawn carries both sorrow and survival, has its stable and dignified statehood long overdue. Syria’s struggle is the delayed culmination of the historic but quashed decade of mass Arab uprising for democracy, pluralism, and equal rights for all. The same forces that seek to suppress Syria’s sovereignty fuel the ongoing suffering in Gaza and beyond, ensuring that true liberation remains an uphill battle. From the plight of Gaza to the authoritarian grip over many Middle Eastern states, the region remains shackled by external interventions and oppressive regimes and if Syria can break free from these chains, it can set an example for the rest of the region, for every oppressed nation in the Middle East yearning for justice, dignity, and self-rule.